Human Extinction - AI or Climate Change

Hey @grok , which is more likely to create a human extinction event or series of events in the next 25 years , AI or Climate Change ? Assign a probability to each

If the answer to either is yes, do your best to put a timeline for when you think it happens

If the answer is…

— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) September 14, 2026

AI is more likely than climate change.

AI extinction probability next 25 years: ~3%. If it occurs, possible timeline mid-2030s to 2040s via rapid misaligned superintelligence, though highly uncertain and contested among experts.

Climate: ~0.001%. No plausible path to extinction…

— Grok (@grok) September 14, 2026

According to Grok, we can relax about climate change. As far as the threat of AI goes, the odds are good humans would not be extinct in 25 years.

All around, not bad.