Fact Check: 'Stimulus Assessments Overly Optimistic'

Now and then, the Associated Press offers a Fact Check article and actually cuts through its usual Obama cheerleading.

Its most recent Fact Check: "Stimulus assessments overly optimistic."

This really is no revelation. We know the administration has been touting the effectiveness of the stimulus and we know it's BS.

Still, I find it amusing to see AP actually report that what Obama, Biden, and the rest of team claim is actually "overly optimistic."

The Obama administration claimed this week that $100 billion invested in innovative technologies under the economic stimulus law is "transforming the American economy" by putting the nation on track for technological breakthroughs in health care, energy and transportation.

But an examination of details in the 50-page report unveiled Tuesday by Vice President Joe Biden reveals something a bit different: a collection of rosy projections that ignore many of the challenges, pitfalls and economic realities in all those areas.

A look at how the administration's claims compare to the facts:

Increasing renewable energy

The claim: Thanks to the stimulus, the U.S. is on track to "doubling U.S. renewable energy generation capacity and U.S. renewable manufacturing capacity by 2012."

The facts: While the Recovery Act has helped increase renewable energy, the fact that it is a one-time jolt makes it difficult to project that the growth will continue for the next couple of years. George Sterzinger, executive director of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, a Washington think tank that promotes renewable energy, said the Recovery Act's cash grant program for renewable energy projects "jump-started a lot of stuff. But there's nothing beyond that."

...

Cutting the cost of solar power

The claim: Government stimulus money will lead to "cutting the cost of solar power in half by 2015, putting it on par with the cost of retail electricity from the grid."

The facts: That projection assumes a huge payoff from stimulus spending on technology improvements in solar energy. Nelson, who has worked in renewable energy for 25 years, called the prediction "highly unlikely," unless there is a big increase in utility-scale solar power projects.

...

Quicker, cheaper genetic mapping

The claim: Stimulus funding is spurring National Institutes of Health research to make unraveling people's individual genetic codes, or genomes, easy and cheap enough that the number completed could "dwarf, by 50 times or so" the number so far finished.

The facts: NIH research kicked off the revolution in human genome sequencing and continues to play a crucial role, but it has lots of help today from universities, international research foundations and even private companies jockeying to sell better gene-scanning machines.

This one caught my eye:

High-speed rail

The claim: "With $8 billion in funding, the Recovery Act is beginning to make high-speed rail a reality across the country." Projects selected for funds represent "strategic investments" that will yield high-speed service or lay the groundwork for future service.

The facts: The largest project is one that would connect San Francisco with Los Angeles, using trains traveling up to 220 mph. But some of the projects getting stimulus money would primarily upgrade existing freight rail tracks so they could be used for faster passenger service, reaching speeds of up to 110 mph at least part of the time — well short of the speeds in other developed countries.

Not everyone shares the White House's optimism about the prospects for high-speed rail. A recent analysis by the Government Accountability Office concluded that building high-speed rail service in the U.S. "is a difficult, multiyear effort" that hinges on financing that goes "far beyond the funds provided by the Recovery Act in a time of continuing federal and state deficits."

To say not everyone shares the White House's optimism about the prospects for high-speed rail is an understatement.

Health information technology

The claim: Stimulus spending is "a significant boost" to goals of converting to electronic health records, computerized prescriptions and remote treatment of patients in hard-to-reach locations.

The facts: The effort to get doctors' offices and hospitals using electronic medical records is in its earliest stages. Economic dividends from greater efficiency and fewer costly medical mistakes could be years away.

And there's plenty of potential for glitches. People involved with the issue give the administration high marks for trying, but many do not expect Obama's goal of getting all of America's medical records computerized within five years to be met.

...

Electric vehicles

The claim: The stimulus has helped produce "significant steps toward affordable electric cars that can drive 300 miles on a single charge, powered by $10 of clean electricity instead of $50 dollars of oil. Ultimately this means consumers may have the choice among a range of vehicles from a combustion vehicle with over 50 miles per gallon or an electric-drive vehicle for the same price."

The facts: While strides are being made, this vision of the future rests on assumptions that many regard as overly optimistic. Even a White House task force on the auto industry's recovery said while General Motors' extended-range plug-in hybrid, the Volt, "holds promise, it will likely be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short term." At $41,000, the Volt is about twice the price of a conventional midsize car. The price of electric cars will drop, but automakers are years from being able to sell them at the same price as cars with internal combustion engines.

In short, regarding the stimulus, Team Obama has lied repeatedly to the American people.
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Read the Washington Times editorial:

Cooking the books on job claims
Stimulus does more for politicians than American work force