Paul Ryan 2012 Reelection

The lead story of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel online edition is a "what if" piece by Craig Gilbert.

It's a Democrat fantasy about Paul Ryan struggling to win reelection and the possibility of him losing.

It's a very odd article, something that reads more like Democrat party campaign literature than news.

As the fiscal voice of the GOP and the architect of its plan to scale back Medicare, Paul Ryan is the Republican many Democrats would most like to defeat next year.

A Ryan loss would cost his party a lot more than a seat in Congress. It would deprive it of one of its most influential figures. And it would be a huge blow to its policy agenda, which Ryan has played a central role in crafting.

Could Ryan, often touted as a candidate for Senate or even president, lose a re-election bid for his own U.S. House seat?

That would be a shock. By any conventional calculus, the odds are substantially against it.

At the same time, Democrats are correct in saying this contest won't be a nonevent like Ryan's past campaigns. Wisconsin has been turned upside down politically since the last time Ryan was on a ballot.

"It will definitely be a race he's not used to running," says his likely Democratic opponent, Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban.

In other words, prepare for national money to probably pour into the state again, this time to bloody Ryan.

I'm sure Obama would encourage roughing Ryan up.

Gilbert concludes:

Ryan will enjoy obvious advantages next year (money, the makeup of the district, his own political skills, his electoral history). But there are major wild cards: the political fallout from his Medicare plan, the impact of having Obama on the ballot (and possibly even Walker if there's a successful recall drive next year), and the mad intensity of Wisconsin politics these days.

Gilbert seems to be giving a "you gotta believe" pep talk to Democrats: Stop Ryan. Recall Walker. Reelect Obama.

I think Obama being on the ballot will help Ryan, not hurt him.

This election is going to be a referendum on Obama's policies and his stunning ineffectiveness, especially in terms of the economy.