Exit Polls: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Blows It

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel didn't like what Drudge was reporting about the outcome of the recall election.

Drudge posted this link: "'PULITZER' NEWSPAPER MOCKS DRUDGE FOR INFORMING READERS..."

The Drudge Report this afternoon breathlessly reports that exit polls from Tuesday's recall election show Gov. Scott Walker holding his seat.

One problem, though. He provides no information to suggest that. The link he provides sends readers to an Associated Press story.

Republican and Democratic sources in Wisconsin told the Journal Sentinel that the numbers used by the Drudge Report are wrong. Sources said the exit polls showed that race as being much tighter than the conservative website indicated.

Later, Drudge updated his website, reporting that the exit poll showed a close race, but no recall.

The Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter on Twitter and his blog The Wisconsin Voter) will detail the results of the exit polling after the polls close.

Craig Gilbert did detail the results of the exit polls. He, too, was quite breathless about it.

Tuesday’s exit polls depict a much closer recall race – 50% to 50% -- between Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Tom Barrett than pre-election polls did.

That doesn't mean that's where the margin will end up.

But right now the Walker-Barrett race is so close in the exit polling there appears little chance it will be called by media outlets until deep into the vote-counting.

Some notable patterns in the exit polling:

Union households are a larger slice of this electorate (33% of the vote Tuesday) than in 2010 (26%). That’s important because this group is voting even more heavily against Walker (64% to 35%), than it did in 2010.

Conservatives appears to be a smaller slice of this electorate (34% of 2012 voters) than in 2010 (when they made up 37% of the vote).

Walker has lost ground among independents since 2010. Independents voted 56% to 42% for Walker over Barrett in 2010, but favor him only by 50% to 49% in Tuesday’s exit polling.

Walker also appears to have lost ground among women. He lost women by three points, 48% to 51%, in 2010. But this time he is losing them by 12 points, 56% to 44%.

I admit, this information really concerned me.

Luckily, the worry was extremely short-lived.

It was only a matter of minutes and the race was called for Walker.

The local media were stunned.

TMJ4 and FOX6 on-air personalities looked devastated. Such disappointment! Such unprofessionalism!

The Journal Sentinel owes Drudge an apology.

Which was more humiliating: The demoralizing defeat of Tom Barrett and his union allies, or the media's reporting of the demoralizing defeat?

Too close to call.