PPP Poll: Hovde Leads

Wisconsin's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate is less than two weeks away.

Public Policy Polling has bad news for Tommy Thompson.

His strong lead in the race appears to have evaporated.

Close 3 way contest for GOP in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds Eric Hovde leading with 28% to 25% for Thompson and Mark Neumann, and 13% for Jeff Fitzgerald.

Thompson's seen a precipitous decline in his standing with GOP voters over the last 5 months. In February he was at 39%. By early July he had dropped to 29% in our polling and he's continued to decline now to his 25% standing. His personal image has taken a big hit as well. Where his favorability with primary voters earlier in the year was a +47 spread at 66/19, it's now declined 41 points to only +6 at 47/41.

It's concern about whether Thompson is sufficiently conservative that is driving a lot of his problems. 58% of primary voters now say they want someone more conservative than him to be the nominee, compared to only 29% who are content with him. And he's posting extremely weak numbers with voters identifying as 'very conservative,' getting 21% to 28% each for Hovde and Neumann.

The momentum in this contest is on Neumann's side. He's gained 10 points over the last month to go from 15% to 25%. His strength is coming from the most conservative wing of the GOP electorate. In early July he trailed Hovde by 20 points, 32-12, with those voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Now he's pulled into a tie with him at 28%.

Hovde remains the unexpected leader in this contest but his momentum has stalled a good bit over the last month. His share of the vote has dropped from 31% to 28%, and his favorability has gone from a 50/9 spread to a 50/3o spread. At one time it seemed like everybody was forming a positive opinion as they became familiar with him but that trend has reversed itself to some extent in the last month.

There is no question that on Election Day in November I will vote for the winner of the Republican primary. Anybody but radical Leftist Tammy Baldwin.

I'm hoping the winner of the primary is the candidate most likely to defeat Baldwin.

The question: Who is that candidate?

Hovde has a slight lead in the PPP poll.

Full results here.

I have serious doubts about Hovde. He's no Ron Johnson, even though he tries to play him on TV and radio.

I have concerns about both Thompson and Neumann.

This primary process has left me unenthusiastic about the top three contenders.

Frankly, the only candidate who doesn't bug me at the moment is Jeff Fitzgerald.