Thursday, June 2, 2005

POLLS, SCHMOLLS




I think polls tell more about the person who constructed the poll than about anything else. Answers are preordained by the way the questions are phrased. As a result, it is a mistake to give them much credence, as if they reveal truth. They don't.

For example, a week ago, a
USA Today poll found that 33% of conservatives would support Hillary Clinton for president.

That's absolutely absurd. The results of that poll cannot be valid. Common sense overrides those numbers.

That said, I don't take much comfort in the lastest Rasmussen poll, although the results are more to my liking. I can't assume that poll is accurate while I denounce the credibility of the USA Today poll.

Nevertheless, since last week's numbers, the ones showing Hillary to be favored by the majority of Americans to be the next president, received so much attention, it's fair to present some numbers that show a drastically different picture.

From
Rasmussen:

June 1, 2005--If Senator Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2008, just 26% of Americans say they would definitely vote for her. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 41% would definitely vote against the former First Lady.

Those are the weakest numbers recorded during any of the five Hillary Meter surveys. Two weeks ago, those figures were 30% definitely for and 37% definitely against.

Virtually the entire decline in support for Mrs. Clinton took place among male voters. Our previous survey found that 27% of men planned to definitely vote for her. Only 20% held that view in the current survey.

In states John Kerry won by less than five points in Election 2004, 30% say they would definitely vote for Senator Clinton while 36% would definitely vote against. These six states have 72 Electoral Votes and are essential to any plans for Democrats to recapture the White House.

In the four states that President Bush won by less than five points, 22% of voters will definitely vote for Mrs. Clinton. Forty percent (40%) say they will definitely vote against her. These states have 42 Electoral Votes.

Ideologically, there is no change in perceptions of New York's junior Senator compared to recent surveys. Forty-five percent (45%) continue to believe that she is politically liberal. In January, before Clinton launched an effort to moderate perceptions of her political views, 51% believed that liberal was the right label for the Senator's political views.
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Again, I don't put much stock in polls.

However, these results from Rasmussen make a lot more sense than the USA Today poll, claiming that 33% of conservatives would be in Hillary's corner.

USA Today screwed up royally on that one.

2 comments:

Ma Tiny said...

Difference between USA Today poll and Assmunchen? You have to pay to find out what questions Assmunchen asked.

Mary said...

Such class, jami.