The Democrats Win

The way I see it the Republicans are going to lose the presidency. They're doing it in a most protracted slow-motion manner. It's painful.

The Democrats are divided but not in terms of ideology.

The Republicans, on the other hand, are battling to determine the direction of the party. They're in a fight for its soul.

The Dems are not struggling over fundamental principles. They're having a popularity contest, a battle of personalities. Actually, it's a battle between the facades, very superficial stuff.

From the New York Times:

Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama carved up the nation in the 22-state nominating contest on Tuesday, leaving the Democratic presidential nomination more elusive than ever. Mrs. Clinton won California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and her home state, New York, while Mr. Obama took Connecticut, Georgia, Minnesota and his base in Illinois.

It was a night of drama as millions of Democrats cleaved sharply between two candidates offering them a historic first: The opportunity to nominate a woman or an African-American to lead their party’s effort to reclaim the White House. Yet it was also a night when neither Mr. Obama nor Mrs. Clinton could decisively lay claim — or even secure an edge — to the nomination, assuring an electoral fight that will unfold for weeks to come.

In remarks to their supporters in Manhattan and Chicago, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama smiled broadly but were relatively low key in their assessments of the night, as if they knew that their state-by-state successes did not add up to the grand prize of Democratic standard-bearer. Both sounded a little tired at times, already exhausted by campaigning and fund-raising, with only more of both ahead.

...The results and exit polls showed formidable strengths for each candidate, with Mr. Obama gaining appeal with white voters — particularly white men — and Mrs. Clinton solidifying her support among Hispanics. Mrs. Clinton won Democratic primaries in states that her party rarely carries in a general election, like Arkansas — where she served as first lady — as well as Oklahoma and Tennessee.

“Tonight we are hearing the voices of people across America — people of all ages, of all colors, of all faiths, of all walks of life,” a broadly smiling Mrs. Clinton told supporters in Manhattan just before 11 p.m. “Tonight, in record numbers, you voted not just to make history, but to remake America.”

Mr. Obama, who appeared to be building momentum in recent days, held wide leads in states like Minnesota, and ran close behind her in states like New Jersey. That left him poised to pick up a hefty number of delegates, even in some states that Mrs. Clinton won.

“There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know: our time has come,” Mr. Obama said to cheers at a party in Chicago. “Our time has come, our movement is real, and change is coming to America.”

Hillary wants to remake America.

Obama promises change is coming.

The Dems are united in their desire for change.

Whether that change will be ushered in by a mature woman dressed in a black pantsuit or a charismatic, youthful black man is just a matter of details. There's no real disagreement between them. They're both liberals.

More importantly, Dem voters are genuinely excited about their candidates.

It's a dramatically different story among the Republicans. I'm sure some are enthusiastic, but many are terribly dissatisfied.

The division in the party is so deep that it seems impossible to imagine McCain being carried into the White House on a wave of unity and resolve.

Anything can happen. Given the current political landscape, however, the Republicans holding on to the presidency seems highly unlikely.

I'm not being a defeatist. I'm being a realist.

Maybe I'm underestimating the anti-Hillary vote.

If the Republicans do eke out a win in November, it won't be out of support for McCain. It will be to block Hillary. If Obama should win the Dem nomination, it's all over.