FREEDOM EDEN: Nate Silver - Election Results

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Nate Silver - Election Results

From FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver writes:

That’s A Wrap

Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States.

In an extremely narrow sense, I’m not that surprised by the outcome, since polling — to a greater extent than the conventional wisdom acknowledged — had shown a fairly competitive race with critical weaknesses for Clinton in the Electoral College. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Clinton will eventually win the popular vote as more votes come in from California.

But in a broader sense? It’s the most shocking political development of my lifetime.

Silver isn't that surprised by the outcome?

Well, he didn't call it.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

THE WALL OF SHAME

"The only thing [Trump's] mouth is good for is being Vladimir Putin's c--k holster."

--STEPHEN COLBERT

"[Ivanka Trump] Your father is a racist birther. Steve Bannon an anti-Semitic opportunist. You and your husband are enabling hatred. F--- your shoes."

--BRADLEY WHITFORD

"Melania [Trump] is a hooker."

--JACOB BERNSTEIN

"And my job is to shut other white people down when they want to interrupt."

"We have to, at the DNC, provide training. We have to teach them how to communicate, how to be sensitive, and how to shut their mouths if they're white."

--SALLY BOYNTON BROWN

"And to our detractors that insist that this march will never add up to anything: F--- you! F---you!

"Yes, I have thought an awful lot about blowing up the White House."

--MADONNA

"Barron Trump looks like a very handsome date-rapist-to-be."

--STEPHEN SPINOLA

"Barron [Trump] will be this country's first homeschool shooter."

--KATIE RICH

"Hollywood is crawling with outsiders and foreigners, and if we kick 'em all out, you'll have nothing to watch but football and mixed martial arts, which are not the arts."

--MERYL STREEP

"There's a billion to one chance we're living in base reality."

[That means we're almost positively living in a simulation, like a video game.]

--ELON MUSK

"When I would deny that there was a significant racist component in some of the politics on our side, it was because the people I hung out with were certainly not. When suddenly, this rock is turned over, there is this—'Oh shit, did I not see that?'"

----------------------------

"In any other scenario, Hillary Clinton's lying about her emails, and her pay-for-play relationship with the Clinton Foundation would be disqualifying issues. The only reason they're not disqualifying is because Donald Trump is a fundamentally more repellent, dishonest figure."

--CHARLIE SYKES

"I made a mistake in recalling the events of twelve years ago... I said I was traveling in an aircraft that was hit by RPG fire. I was instead in a following aircraft."

--BRIAN WILLIAMS

"I'm here to tell you if you elect me governor of this state, I will end the civil war."

--TOM BARRETT

"I would not look to the U.S. Constitution, if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012. I might look at the constitution of South Africa. That was a deliberate attempt to have a fundamental instrument of government that embraced basic human rights, had an independent judiciary. It really is, I think, a great piece of work that was done."

--RUTH BADER GINSBURG

"Callista Gingrich. Karen Santorum. Ann Romney. Now, do you really think our country is ready for a white first lady?"

--ROBERT DE NIRO

"The death of Andrew Breitbart disproves the adage that only the good die young."

--JULIAN BOND

"The National Institute of Health has said that it is a danger to women's health and safety of their families that for 30 years to be exposed to the prospects of pregnancy."

--GWEN MOORE

"[Tea Party Republicans] have acted like terrorists."

--JOE BIDEN

"Why did- Couldn't the President have said at that moment, way back in December of last year, 'no game playing. No hostage-taking. No terrorizing this country with the debt ceiling. I'm not going to negotiate with you guys. You can't play it that way.' Could he have done that?"

--CHRIS MATTHEWS

"[T]he tea-party Hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor."

--WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIAL

"I remember distinctly an image of--we were sitting on his couches, and I was looking at [Obama's] pant leg and his perfectly creased pant, and I'm thinking, a) he's going to be president and b) he'll be a very good president."

--DAVID BROOKS

"I feel like calling her back and smackin' her around."

--FRED CLARK, DEMOCRAT

"The picture was of me, and I sent it."

--ANTHONY WEINER

"[I]f you go back to the year 2000, when we had an obvious disaster and - and saw that our voting process needed refinement, and we did that in the America Votes Act and made sure that we could iron out those kinks, now you have the Republicans, who want to literally drag us all the way back to Jim Crow laws and literally - and very transparently - block access to the polls to voters who are more likely to vote Democratic candidates than Republican candidates. And it's nothing short of that blatant."

--DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ

"This is probably one of the worst times we've seen because the numbers of people elected to Congress. I went through this as co-chair of the arts caucus. In '94 people were elected simply to come here to kill the National Endowment for the Arts. Now they’re here to kill women."

--LOUISE SLAUGHTER

"The protesters have proven today that they‘re not going away. It was a pretty rough night last night. You can imagine if people said, well, we just can‘t fight the power. Instead, this morning, they came by tens, by hundreds, by thousands. By midday today, it was easily more than 10,000, perhaps as many as 15,000 people on the square here in Madison. Not organized by anyone, just grassroots citizens who came out just like the Minutemen in 1776."

--JOHN NICHOLS

"They're sitting on the money, they're using it for their own -- they're putting it someplace else with no interest in helping you with your life, with that money. We've allowed them to take that. That's not theirs, that's a national resource, that's ours. We all have this -- we all benefit from this or we all suffer as a result of not having it. I think we need to go back to taxing these people at the proper rates."

--MICHAEL MOORE

"Why don't we just raise the taxes and let these folks have their collective bargaining, have their union representation and go back to their jobs? Raise the taxes on the wealthy."

--DAVID LETTERMAN

"In 1933, [Hitler] abolished unions and that's what our Governor [Scott Walker] is doing today."

--LENA TAYLOR, Democrat State Senator

"So I would urge my Republican colleagues, no matter how strongly they feel -- you know, we have three branches of government. We have a House. We have a Senate. We have a president. And all three of us are going to have to come together and give some, but it is playing with fire to risk the shutting down of the government."

--CHUCK SCHUMER

"Well, when you start off with the Preamble of the Constitution, you talk about the pursuit of happiness."

--JOHN LEWIS

"I'm Rebecca Kleefisch. I performed fellatio on all the talk show hosts in Milwaukee. And they endorsed me and that's how I became lieutenant governor."

--SLY SYLVESTER

"Do you think this Constitution-loving is getting out of hand? I mean, is it a nod to the Tea Party?"

--JOY BEHAR

"We can’t just leave it up to the parents."

"[Military leaders] tell us that childhood obesity isn’t just a public health issue; they tell us that it is not just an economic threat -- it is a national security threat as well."

--MICHELLE OBAMA

"Actually, I did not take part in [the assassination of Sarah Palin]. I led it."

--KATHLEEN PARKER

"[The repeal of ObamaCare is] a kind of creeping genocide."

--JESSE JACKSON

"[Obama] has to realize that Mitch McConnell has virtually said so that politically he wants to cut out his heart and throw his liver to the dogs."

--DAN RATHER

"And the instructions are not to improvise a comedy sketch, but to elect a group of unqualified, unstable individuals who will do what they are told, in exchange for money and power, and march this nation as far backward as they can get, backward to Jim Crow, or backward to the breadlines of the '30s, or backward to hanging union organizers, or backward to the trusts and the robber barons.

"Result: the Tea Party. Vote backward, vote Tea Party. And if you are somehow indifferent to what is planned for next Tuesday, it is nothing short of an attempted use of democracy to end this democracy."

--KEITH "Reagan's dead and he was a lousy President" OLBERMANN

"I gotta wonder when people are gonna start wearing uniforms. I mean they've got an army out there in Alaska of militia people. You've got these guys going around acting like street thugs. I mean it isn't far from what we saw in the thirties, where all of a sudden, political parties started showing up in uniform."

--CHRIS MATTHEWS

"[Sharron Angle] is a moron on top of being evil... I'd like to see her do this ad in the South Bronx. Come here, bitch. Come to New York and do it. I'm not praying for her. She's going to hell. She's going to hell, this bitch."

--JOY BEHAR

"So people have been hurting and I understand that. And it doesn't give them comfort or solace for me to tell them, you know, but for me, we'd be in a worldwide depression."

--HARRY REID

"And to play Dick Cheney, all I had to do was find my Dick Cheney. And you can find all the villainy in the world in your own heart, and that's what an actor's job is. I always say to kids, inside you is Hitler and Jesus. And you got to find the appropriate person and bring them out."

--RICHARD DREYFUSS

"Because I live in the District of Columbia which is so predominantly Democratic, I am a registered Democrat. But I am an avowed neutral. And to put that into practice, I take my young daughter into the voting booth and she votes for me. She's now 14. We've been doing this since she was about age 4. She's now quite informed."

--BOB WOODWARD

"Sarah Palin's an idiot. Come on. This is a remarkably, stunningly, jaw-droppingly incompetent and mean woman."

"The Democrats may have moved into the center, but the Republicans have moved into a mental institution."

--AARON SORKIN

"Perhaps the greatest threat of all is the undermining of our Constitution and the systematic attack against the inalienable rights of the citizens of this nation, rights that are guaranteed by our Constitution. At the vanguard of this insidious attack is the Tea Party. This band of misguided citizens is moving perilously close to achieving villainous ends."

--HARRY BELAFONTE

"[Christine O'Donnell is] a witch who doesn't masturbate."

--JOY BEHAR

"Ah, the Tea Party, the nativist bed-wetters who somehow control our national dialogue. Yes, I call them the Pee Party, Jay, because they're always peeing in their pants about something. They're just, they're afraid of a mosque being built in New York. They're afraid of guns. You know, they think Obama, who like every other pussy Democrat has never said a single word about gun control, but they are very sure that he and his Negro army are coming after their guns. You know what? If you think that he's coming after your guns, you need to get out of your chat room and have your house tested for lead. He's not coming after your guns or your Bible or your fishing pole or your chewing tobacco."

--BILL MAHER

"That's a trade-off society is making because of very, very high medical costs, and a lack of willingness to say, you know, is spending a million dollars on that last three months of life for that patient, would it be better not to lay off those ten teachers and to make that trade-off in medical costs. But that;s called the 'Death Panel' and you're not supposed to have that discussion."

--BILL GATES

"NOT the 'whiteman's bitch'"

--IESHUH GRIFFIN

"[If Rush Limbaugh suffered a heart attack in my presence, I would] laugh loudly like a maniac and watch his eyes bug out. I never knew I had this much hate in me. But he deserves it."

--SARAH SPITZ

"You want freedom, you going to have to kill some crackers. You going to have to kill some of their babies."

--KING SAMIR SHABAZZ

"If this was Texas, which is the state that, that is directly on the border with Mexico, and they were calling for a measure like this, saying that they had a major issue with, you know, with undocumented people flooding their borders, I would say I would have to look twice at this. "But this is a state that is a ways removed from the border. And, um, it just, it doesn't make sense to me that when you google this subject, if you put in 'Arizona S.B. 1070,' that you see a picture of the governor of Arizona meeting with President Obama in May of 2010. If you have direct linkage to the president, there are already National Guard troops on the border in Arizona."

--PEGGY WEST

"Tell [the Jews] to get the hell out of Palestine. Remember, these people are occupied and it's their land. It's not German. It's not Poland. [The Jews] can go home. Poland. Germany."

--HELEN THOMAS

"After the last eight years, it's good to have a president that knows what a library is."

--PAUL McCARTNEY

"By the way, I just want to point out I'm wearing my splash shield because I was told I was going to be in the splash zone (during Harry Smith's colonoscopy on live TV)."

--KATIE COURIC

"And that Word is, we have to give voice to what that means in terms of public policy that would be in keeping with the values of the Word."

----------------------------

"Think of an economy where people could be an artist or a photographer or a writer without worrying about keeping their day job in order to have health insurance or that people could start a business and be entrepreneurial and take risk, but not job loss because of a child with asthma or someone in the family is bipolar—you name it, any condition — is job-locking."

--NANCY PELOSI

"Back in World War II, we viewed the Japanese as 'yellow, slant-eyed dogs' that believed in different gods. They were out to kill us because our way of living was different. We, in turn, wanted to annihilate them because they were different. Does that sound familiar, by any chance, to what's going on today?"

--TOM HANKS

"The 'White Right' is trying to set Barack up to be assassinated.... Here are Christians praying for God to kill Barack Obama."

--LOUIS FARRAKHAN

"I refuse to accept the notion that the United States of America is not going to lead the world economically throughout the 20th Century."

--JOE BIDEN

"Obama's critics keep blasting him for Chicago-style politics. So, fine. Channel your inner Al Capone and go gangsta against your foes. Let 'em know that if they aren't with you, they are against you, and will pay the price."

--ROLAND MARTIN

"Martha Coakley is running to fill the rest of Ted Kennedy's term, and her opponent is a far-right tea-bagger Republican."

--CHUCK SCHUMER

"I tell you what, if I lived in Massachusetts, I'd try to vote ten times. I don't know if they'd let me or not, but I'd try to. Yeah, that's right, I'd cheat to keep these bastards out. I would. 'Cause that's exactly what they are."

--ED SCHULTZ

"We also see how revved up the tea baggers are at the thought of hijacking health care reform and every chance we have at making progress in Washington."

--JOHN KERRY

"A few years ago, this guy (Obama) would have been getting us coffee."

--BILL CLINTON

"I didn't realize I had written a column defending Roman Polanski and minimized his crime - are you sure it was me? I mean, I? There is, apparently, more to this crime than it would seem, and it may sound like a hollow defense, but in Hollywood I am not sure a 13-year-old is really a 13-year-old."

--TOM SHALES

"Joe Wilson yelled 'You lie!' at a president who didn't. But, fair or not, what I heard was an unspoken word in the air: You lie, boy!"

--MAUREEN DOWD

"One awkward moment for Sarah Palin at the Yankee game... During the 7th inning, her daughter was knocked up by Alex Rodriguez."

--DAVID LETTERMAN

"I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn’t lived that life."

--SONIA SOTOMAYOR

"We all considered sexual abuse of minors as a moral evil, but had no understanding of its criminal nature."

--REMBERT WEAKLAND, Archbishop of Milwaukee 1977- 2002

"You know, you might want to look into this, [President Obama], because I think maybe Rush Limbaugh was the 20th hijacker, but he was so strung out on Oxycontin he missed his flight."

"Rush Limbaugh -- 'I hope the country fails.' I hope his kidneys fail."

----------------------------

"[Obama] told me I did a great job. The first lady said the same thing. I got a 'well done' from the president, I'm on cloud nine."

--WANDA SYKES

"Americans are looking for more government in their life, not less."

--COLIN POWELL

"[Tea Party goers are] just a bunch of wimpy, whiny, weasels who don't love their country."

--PAUL BEGALA

"I wouldn't want [gay marriage] to go to the United States Supreme Court now because that homophobe Antonin Scalia has too many votes on this current court."

--BARNEY FRANK

"Going forward, my mind will be open to every solution -- except one. We should not -- we must not -- and I will not -- raise taxes."

--JIM DOYLE, Liar

"He's a terrorist. Rush Limbaugh is a terrorist."

--JOY BEHAR

"You know, I just want to say to her (Sarah Palin), just very quickly...F--- you."

--JON STEWART

"Should I be worried about being a slave and being returned to slavery?"

--WHOOPI GOLDBERG

"I also believe that America is the greatest sin against God."

--FR. MICHAEL PFLEGER

"Those who think they can revive the stinking corpse of the usurping and fake Israeli regime by throwing a birthday party are seriously mistaken. Today the reason for the Zionist regime's existence is questioned, and this regime is on its way to annihilation."

--MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD

"We'll be eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals."

--TED TURNER

"Look, [Mitt] Romney comes from a religion founded by a criminal who was anti-American, pro-slavery, and a rapist. And he comes from that lineage and says, 'I respect this religion fully.'"

--LAWRENCE O'DONNELL

"Mexico does not end at its borders... Where there is a Mexican, there is Mexico."

--FELIPE CALDERON

"The planet has a fever. If your baby has a fever, you go to the doctor. If the doctor says you need to intervene here, you don't say, 'Well, I read a science fiction novel that told me it's not a problem.' If the crib's on fire, you don't speculate that the baby is flame retardant."

--AL GORE

"Don't fear the terrorists. They're mothers and fathers."

--ROSIE O'DONNELL

"Is America ready for a black president? Well, I say we just had a retarded one. When did being black become a bigger deterrent than being retarded?"

--CHRIS ROCK

"Shut the f--- up! Shut up if you can't take a joke [about President Bush]!"

--BARBRA STREISAND

"Right, oh, yeah, Happy 9/11! Celebrate the day, right?"

--JAMES BROLIN, Mr. Barbra Streisand

"I think President Bush very well may have signed an authorization for the 9/11 attacks."

--KEVIN BARRETT, UW-MADISON Lecturer

"I said what I said. I am not guilty."

--SADDAM HUSSEIN

"Terri will not be starved to death. Her nutrition and hydration will be taken away."

--MICHAEL SCHIAVO

"On the eve of the election last month my wife Judith and I were driving home late in the afternoon and turned on the radio for the traffic and weather. What we instantly got was a freak show of political pornography: lies, distortions, and half-truths -- half-truths being perhaps the blackest of all lies. "

--BILL MOYERS

"I hate the Republicans and everything they stand for."

--HOWARD DEAN

"The Iraqis who have risen up against the occupation are not 'insurgents' or 'terrorists' or 'The Enemy.' They are the REVOLUTION, the Minutemen, and their numbers will grow -- and they will win."

--MICHAEL MOORE

"And there is no reason, Bob, that young American soldiers need to be going into the homes of Iraqis in the dead of night, terrorizing kids and children, you know, women, breaking sort of the customs of the--of--the historical customs, religious customs."

--JOHN KERRY

"F---ing retarded."

"[Republicans] can go f--- themselves!"

--RAHM EMANUEL

"I'm not going to have some reporters pawing through our papers. We are the president."

--HILLARY CLINTON

"It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

--BILL CLINTON

"And let me tell you something -- for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change. And I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction and just not feeling so alone in my frustration and disappointment."

--MICHELLE OBAMA

"If asking a billionaire to pay the same tax rate as a Jew, uh, as a janitor, makes me a warrior for the working class, I wear that with a badge of honor."

----------------------------

"If you love me, you got to help me pass this bill."

----------------------------

"[F]or most of my lifetime, the United States was such a dominant economic power, we were such a large market, our industry, our technology, our manufacturing was so significant that we always met the rest of the world economically on our terms. And now, because of the incredible rise of India and China and Brazil and other countries, the United States remains the largest economic and the largest market but there’s real competition out there. And that's potentially healthy. It makes -- Michelle was saying earlier I like tough questions because it keeps me on my toes. Well, this will keep America on its toes."

----------------------------

"If Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, 'We're gonna PUNISH OUR ENEMIES and we're gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us,' if they don't see that kind of upsurge in voting in this election, then I think it's gonna be harder and that's why I think it's so important that people focus on voting on November 2."

----------------------------

"We don't mind the Republicans joining us. They can come for the ride, but THEY GOTTA SIT IN BACK."

----------------------------

"We can absorb a terrorist attack. We'll do everything we can to prevent it, but even a 9/11, even the biggest attack ever... we absorbed it and we are stronger."

----------------------------

"We're buying shrimp, guys."

----------------------------

"We are the ones we've been waiting for."

----------------------------

"We talk to these folks because they potentially have the best answers so I know whose ass to kick."

----------------------------

"We're not trying to push financial reform because we begrudge success that's fairly earned. I mean, I do think at a certain point you've made enough money. But, you know, part of the American way is, you know, you can just keep on making it if you’re providing a good product or you're providing good service. We don't want people to stop fulfilling the core responsibilities of the financial system to help grow the economy."

----------------------------

"If you've got a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."

----------------------------

"It is a vital national security interest of the United States to reduce these conflicts because whether we like it or not, we remain a dominant military superpower, and when conflicts break out, one way or another we get pulled into them. And that ends up costing us significantly in terms of both blood and treasure."

----------------------------

"But I -- I think that the most important thing for the public to understand is, we're not handling any of these cases any different than the Bush administration handled them all through 9/11."

----------------------------

"One such translator was an American of Haitian descent, representative of the extraordinary work that our men and women in uniform do all around the world -- Navy CORPSE-MAN Christian [sic] Brossard. And lying on a gurney aboard the USNS Comfort, a woman asked Christopher: 'Where do you come from? What country? After my operation,' she said, 'I will pray for that country.' And in Creole, CORPSE-MAN Brossard responded, 'Etazini.' The United States of America."

----------------------------

"I hear that Dr. Joe Medicine Crow was around, and so I want to give a shout-out to that Congressional Medal of Honor winner. It's good to see you."

----------------------------

"We are God's partners in matters of life and death."

----------------------------

"[T]he Cambridge police acted stupidly."

----------------------------

"I am going to teach [my daughters] first about values and morals, but if they make a mistake, I don't want them punished with a baby."

----------------------------

"The reforms we seek would bring greater competition, choice, savings, and INEFFICIENCIES to our health care system."

----------------------------

"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go. Alaska and Hawaii, I was not allowed to go to even though I really wanted to visit, but my staff would not justify it."

--BARACK OBAMA

NOTEWORTHY QUOTATIONS

"In a word, freedom is ever new. It is a challenge held out to each generation, and it must constantly be won over for the cause of good.... [A] democracy without values can lose its very soul."

--POPE BENEDICT XVI

"When freedom does not have a purpose, when it does not wish to know anything about the rule of law engraved in the hearts of men and women, when it does not listen to the voice of conscience, it turns against humanity and society."

--POPE JOHN PAUL II

"We ourselves feel that what we are doing is just a drop in the ocean. But the ocean would be less because of that missing drop."

--MOTHER TERESA

"To promote choice for its own sake is more akin to self-indulgence than self-determination. It is the philosophy of a pre-schooler in a candy shop."

--BRIAN POLLARD, M.D.

"The ultimate tragedy is not the oppression and cruelty by the bad people but the silence over that by the good people."

--MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR.

"The house we hope to build is not for my generation but for yours. It is your future that matters. And I hope that when you are my age, you will be able to say as I have been able to say: We lived in freedom. We lived lives that were a statement, not an apology."

--RONALD REAGAN

"Liberalism is the philosophy of the stupid."

--MARK LEVIN

"We are Warriors forever."

--BO ELLIS

"I know how much you're supposed to enjoy every sandwich, you know."

--WARREN ZEVON

FREEDOM EDEN

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Nate Silver - Election Results

No comments:

Labels

Blog Archive

WISCONSIN BLOGS

LINKS