Advantage for Hillary?

Now that the Republican race is settled, I don't see why Wisconsinites would bother to cast a vote for a Republican candidate. It would be purely symbolic, not that there's anything wrong with that.

If you want your vote to make a difference, it makes more sense to participate in the Democrat contest.

Because of the open primary, the Democrat race in Wisconsin is shaping up to be an interesting one.

Of course, Dems will vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

And, as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes, independents may be more likely to be drawn to the Dem race because it's still undecided.

John McCain's tightening grip on the GOP nomination could have a spillover effect on Wisconsin's Feb. 19 Democratic primary, especially if the state's large pool of independents finds that contest a far more meaningful way to make its vote count.

The most likely beneficiary of that scenario appears to be Democrat Barack Obama, who has consistently done better than rival Hillary Rodham Clinton with independent voters in this year's primaries and caucuses.

"If those independents cross over into the Democratic primary, they really could add to Obama's support," said Charles Franklin, an expert on polling data and trends at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"Voting by independents is often going to be a case where . . . they have McCain and Obama (first), in various order," Franklin said. "They probably have her (Clinton) third in that group."

In a recent national poll of U.S. adults by the Pew Research Center, McCain and Obama were the only two candidates in either party rated favorably by more than half of self-identified independents - McCain by 53% and Obama by 62%.

"Both candidates do very well among independents. The question is, in an open primary, who gets the lion's share of that vote?" said Pew's Carroll Doherty before McCain rival Mitt Romney dropped out Thursday, raising doubts about how much interest the state's GOP primary now will attract.

Question: Why does McCain do well among independents? Do you think it's because he is such a staunch conservative?

...Wisconsin's open primary, combined with a potentially lackluster GOP contest, is viewed by some Clinton supporters as a distinct advantage for Obama.

"Now that McCain has clinched the nomination, independents and Republicans will want to vote in the Democratic primary," said Tom Loftus, the former Assembly speaker and friend and supporter of the Clintons.

"I think Hillary is definitely the underdog," said Loftus, citing several reasons, including Gov. Jim Doyle's active support for Obama.

"But I think mostly because it's the open primary, with nothing going on the other side," Loftus said.

Whether the GOP primary will be perceived as a non-event by voters isn't entirely clear.

While McCain appears to have all but secured the nomination, Republicans Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul remain in the race. Huckabee aide Kirsten Fedewa said in a statement Friday that Huckabee's economic message would resonate in the state and that he "looks forward to traveling to Wisconsin as soon as his campaign schedule permits."

I'm sure the Ron Paul fanatics won't jump ship.

It's hard to say how much support Huckabee will be able to muster in Wisconsin. A lot probably depends on what happens in other states before Wisconsin votes.

Certainly, it makes a difference that only the Dem race is realistically still up for grabs.

...Wisconsin's primary is as open as they come. With no party registration and no requirement that voters affirm their party orientation at the polls, Republicans have no barriers to voting in the Democratic contest, and vice versa. As in past elections, this has raised questions about strategic voting by one party's voters to meddle in the other party's contest.

Most analysts are skeptical that such voting plays a large role. In 2004, Republicans in Wisconsin behaved a lot like independents when they voted in the Democratic contest, choosing Edwards over Kerry.

"I think mischievous voting does occur sometimes . . . (but) it's not the most common thing," Franklin said. "I think more voters vote sincerely than vote strategically."

I'm not so sure that the open primary will give Obama an advantage in Wisconsin. I think any advantage for him evaporated when the Republican nomination became settled. Hillary could do very well with Republicans.

"Mischievous voting" is an odd term.

A strategic vote, especially in a race that's neck and neck, makes sense. After all, one votes in order to elect the candidate that one supports.

That end may be achieved by voting for a candidate in the primary that one doesn't intend to vote for in the November election.

Rather than seen as "mischievous," it can be considered a very sensible thing to do.

When I vote in the Dem contest on February 19, I promise to do so very sincerely.