Tom Barrett and the Mellman Group: 'The Race is Tied'

Hey, PolitiFact!

Here's a something to examine. It's a fundraising e-mail from Tom Barrett's campaign with the subject line, "Breaking News! The race is tied."

Dear Friend,

You can be the difference between victory and defeat.

A new poll was just released that shows the race remains a dead heat. Help Tom now by contributing or volunteering to help win the fight on the airwaves and on the ground.

The actions that we take today will determine the future of our great state.

We can either elect Tom Barrett and have a governor with a proven record of creating good-paying jobs leading the fight for Wisconsin's middle class, or we can stand by and let Scott Walker give $1.8 billion in tax cuts for the rich while doing nothing for everyday Wisconsinites.

Can Tom count on you to be the difference by making a donation or signing up to volunteer right now?

This is like an Internet scam to raise money under false pretenses.

The race between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett does not remain "a dead heat."

That's a lie.

Based on all the other available date, I suspect that poll cited by Barrett's campaign is a complete crock, typical of the Mellman Group.

Read the poll.

It's clearly an effort to dupe people into contributing by misrepresenting reality.

No other polling for Wisconsin's governor's race shows a dead heat.

RealClearPolitics has assembled polling date for Wisconsin. The RCP average has Walker up by 9 points.

There's no tie, no dead heat, in any of the polls. None.

What we have is Barrett's campaign using the Mellman Group to provide the numbers it needs in the last days before the election.

The Mellman Group has supplied ludicrous data opposing Scott Walker in past elections.

I have personal experience with the Mellman Group.

In 2007, I was polled by the organization for the Scott Walker - Lena Taylor race for Milwaukee County Executive. It was an absolute joke. However, if you read the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, you were told it was a reliable source.

From my post, "The Scott Walker - 'Linda' Taylor Poll," December 17, 2007:

Daniel Bice brought a new poll on the Scott Walker - Lena Taylor race to the attention of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel readers.

What Bice doesn't tell readers is what I KNOW. I'm a primary source, because I was polled.

He writes:

Is there any way that state Sen. Lena Taylor can knock off entrenched County Executive Scott Walker?

Not really, most insiders believe. Walker has the money, name recognition and experience. Plus, Taylor - an African-American liberal from Milwaukee - is going to have a tough time selling herself to suburban Milwaukee County voters.

But all may not be lost for Democrats.

A new poll obtained by No Quarter shows Taylor down by just single-digits to the twice-elected Republican county boss.

The survey, conducted Nov. 28-29 by the Democratic pollster The Mellman Group, has Walker garnering the support of 41% of likely county voters, a lead of 7 percentage points over Taylor. Around a quarter of the 400 respondents were undecided.

The Mellman Group, a reputable outfit based in Madison and Washington, D.C., conducted the poll for Progressive Majority Wisconsin, a liberal interest group. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Walker's team was quick to knock down the numbers.

Tim Russell, the campaign manager, said he has seen other polls showing Walker with re-election numbers topping 50%.

"It's clear," Russell said. "This was intended to pump up the fund-raising before the end of the year. It's telling potential contributors, 'This is not a lost cause.' "

Not surprisingly, Democrats were jubilant with the survey.

"I literally almost fell off my chair when I saw this," said one Democratic veteran.

I'm here to tell you the poll was a joke.

I wasn't going to participate. I was busy, so I asked how long it would take. The guy said two minutes.

LIE.

I believe it took nearly fifteen minutes.

It's been a couple of weeks since I was called so there's a limit to the specifics that I can recollect, but I can give a general summary.

At first the questions were all over the board, questions about President Bush, Governor Doyle.

I clearly remember responding that Doyle was doing a POOR job, because, of course, he is.

It quickly became obvious that the poll was about Scott Walker and Lena Taylor.

There were a lot of "do you agree with this statement" type of questions. They were incredibly long and rambling. The range of response options were equally confusing.

Not only was the survey constructed extremely poorly, if the intent was to obtain the most accurate measure of opinion, it was conducted terribly.

A major problem: The questioner seemed to have a great deal of trouble reading. (Maybe that's why the poll took as long as it did.)

Another problem: I wasn't even using the responses offered because they were so convoluted. The questioner made no attempt to repeat the responses and get me to respond to the poll as it was constructed. I was responding with "not really" and "sorta." Then, the guy interpreted MY responses, meaning the poll was more about him than me.

The survey suggests that it's not so much that Taylor is surging. Only one third of those surveyed said they could pick her out of a lineup. By contrast, Walker was recognized by an amazing nine out of 10 respondents.

But to know the Wauwatosa politician is not necessarily to like him.

Among those who could ID both candidates, Taylor led by more than 20 points. Walker's job performance was given a thumb's up by 42%, compared with 49% who gave him negative marks.

That's no surprise.

I found the goofy statements about Scott Walker laughable.

I know he doesn't want to raise taxes.

I know that he doesn't want to keep citizens from receiving health care.

I know he doesn't have an evil plan to destroy the parks and decimate services for county residents.

However, the statements weren't so laughable if this poll introduced likely voters to Lena Taylor.

Lena Taylor WON'T raise taxes and increase the burden on the already heavily burdened taxpayer.

YEAH, RIGHT.


I also laughed to myself when the questioner kept calling Lena Taylor "Linda" Taylor.

..."The key question is: Can Lena raise enough money to make this a competitive race?" said a second Democratic campaign type not working for Taylor.

No.

The key question is: Can Lena cash checks written out to "Linda" Taylor?

One of the oddest questions of the poll asked which candidate, Walker or Taylor, do you want to represent you in Congress?

I told the guy that the question didn't make sense. A number of times I said the race is for County Executive, not the U.S. Congress.

He kept asking. I wouldn't answer.

Supposedly, the Mellman Group is a reputable outfit.

Read more.

The Mellman Group has provided sophisticated opinion research and strategic advice to political leaders, government agencies, corporations and the nation's leading public interest groups for nearly twenty years. We are experts in the decision making process of consumers and voters, and have extensive experience developing effective communications strategies that lead people to choose our client's product or service, join their organization, hold their opinion, or vote as we would like.

This poll was anything but sophisticated. It was maybe one step above an unscientific online poll.

If my experience was similar to other respondents, the poll's numbers are completely worthless.

More from the Mellman site:

If you understand how people think, you can shape opinion and change behavior. The power to effect change is well within your reach: the key is effective message development. At The Mellman Group, we find the messages that influence the decisions of consumers and voters because we combine the most advanced research techniques with a superior command of strategy. It is a powerful combination, proven to help clients around the world gain real advantage and win tough battles in highly competitive environments.

There's more Mellman lunacy:

Master The Techniques.

Some pollsters simply report on opinions. We use the most sophisticated analytical tools available to understand the motivations of consumers and voters so we can intervene in their decision-making processes to produce the outcomes our clients want. Split sample simulations allow us to observe the differential impact of various messages on decision making. Trade-off questions force respondents to assess the relative priority of conflicting goals. Multivariate techniques help us analyze how attitudes and perceptions cohere and how those attitudes drive decision making. Strategic mapping graphically represents the psychology of choice. Each combination of techniques we choose helps us reveal the underlying structure of decisions for consumers and voters around the world.

Executive Research Without Bias And With Uncompromising Accuracy.

All of our research methods are worthless if the data we collect are inaccurate or biased. Our emphasis on accuracy is obsessive, and our reputation for unbiased research is nationally known.

What's with Bice saying that the Mellman Group is a reputable outfit?

The poll was clearly designed to demonize Walker and boost Taylor. It didn't measure opinion. It's goal was to sway opinion.

Furthermore, the people conducting the poll, at least the guy I talked to, created results, rather than discovered results.

I think it's amazing that Walker's numbers were as good as they were given the nature of this utterly lame, unprofessional "poll."

Based on my past experience, I don't trust the Mellman Group.

Based on the Mellman Group poll alone, don't believe that Walker and Barrett are in a dead heat.